POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials (2019-11-12)

Nov 12, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,016 and 510 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late October to early November. Results show that the latest support rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 19.5 marks, registering another new record low since she took office and across all CEs in history. Her net popularity remains at negative 71 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.1 marks and his net popularity is negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 27.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 40 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.1 marks and her net popularity is negative 68 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung as well as the rating of Teresa Cheng have registered record lows since they took office. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone down and only that of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung has slightly gone up. Those of Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped by 20, 12, 11, 10, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Kevin Yeung, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office. The effective response rates of the surveys are 69.4% and 65.0% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

    Popularity of CE and
Secretaries of Departments
Popularity of Directors of Bureaux
Date of survey : 1-8/11/2019 29-31/10/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size : 1,016 (including 515 landline
and 501 mobile samples)
510 (including 259 landline
and 251 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[1] : 69.4% 65.0%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]    Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[2]    All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 2-4/9/19 16-19/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 16/10/19 17-23/10/19 1-8/11/19 Latest change
Sample size 1,046 1,061 1,004 745 1,038 1,016
Response rate 69.5% 69.5% 64.5% 80.0% 63.2% 69.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 25.4 24.9 22.3 22.7 20.2 19.5+/-1.8 -0.8
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 19% 18% 15% 15% 11%[3] 11+/-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 75% 74% 80%[3] 79% 82% 82+/-2% +1%
Net approval rate -55% -57% -65%[3] -64% -71% -71+/-4% -1%

[3]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 3-6/6/19 2-8/7/19 1-6/8/19 2-4/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 1-8/11/19 Latest change
Sample size 553-616 583-641 574-580 640-679 584-649 625-656
Response rate 60.4% 67.4% 62.8% 69.5% 64.5% 69.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 43.2 38.0[4] 40.1 32.1[4] 31.8 28.1+/-2.0 -3.7[4]
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
29%[4] 26% 28% 18%[4] 18% 17+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
32% 38%[4] 27%[4] 41%[4] 42% 46+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -2% -12%[4] 1%[4] -23%[4] -24% -29+/-6% -5%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 36.1 29.5[4] 32.9[4] 28.0[4] 26.9 27.2+/-2.3 +0.3
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 19% 17% 19% 19% 17% 16+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 47% 57%[4] 49%[4] 55% 59% 57+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -28% -40%[4] -30%[4] -35% -42% -40+/-6% +2%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 29.5 21.6[4] 20.3 17.7 14.7[4] 14.1+/-1.9 -0.5
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 16%[4] 10%[4] 11% 10% 7% 7+/-2%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 56% 68%[4] 63% 68% 75%[4] 76+/-3%
Net approval rate -40% -58%[4] -53% -59% -69%[4] -68+/-5%

[4]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[5]:

Date of survey 1-6/8/19 2-4/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 29-31/10/19 Latest change
Sample size 572-624 609-689 583-633 510
Response rate 62.8% 69.5% 64.5% 65.0%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 34% 31% 26% 23+/-4% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 20% 22% 24% 27+/-4% +3%
Net approval rate 14% 10% 2% -4+/-6% -6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 23% 19% 19% 17+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 13% 17%[6] 22%[6] 24+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate 11% 2%[6] -3% -7+/-6% -4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 42% 38% 33% 27+/-4% -6%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 13% 20%[6] 24% 37+/-4% +13%[6]
Net approval rate 30% 18%[6] 9% -10+/-7% -20%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 40% 33%[6] 31% 24+/-4% -7%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 13% 23%[6] 32%[6] 35+/-4% +3%
Net approval rate 27% 10%[6] -1%[6] -11+/-7% -11%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 32%[6] 30% 25% 18+/-3% -7%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 26% 28% 30% 33+/-4% +3%
Net approval rate 6%[6] 2% -5% -15+/-6% -10%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 26% 20%[6] 17% 14+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 19% 21% 25% 31+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate 6% -1% -9%[6] -16+/-6% -8%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 23% 17%[6] 18% 17+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 26% 33%[6] 34% 35+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -2% -16%[6] -16% -18+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 25%[6] 21% 21% 17+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 25%[6] 31%[6] 32% 37+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate 0%[6] -10%[6] -11% -20+/-6% -9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 21% 17% 17% 12+/-3% -5%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 26% 34%[6] 43%[6] 50+/-4% +7%[6]
Net approval rate -5% -17%[6] -26%[6] -38+/-6% -12%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 23% 21% 16%[6] 15+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 35% 43%[6] 50%[6] 54+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -11% -22%[6] -34%[6] -39+/-7% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 20% 19% 11%[6] 11+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 39%[6] 51%[6] 60%[6] 60+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -19% -32%[6] -50%[6] -48+/-6% +2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 18% 15% 14% 10+/-3% -4%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 49% 57%[6] 58% 59+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -31% -42%[6] -43% -49+/-6% -6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 20% 17% 14% 9+/-3% -5%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 59% 63% 67% 73+/-4% +6%[6]
Net approval rate -39% -46% -53% -63+/-6% -10%[6]

[5]    If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 19.5 marks, registering another new record low since she took office and across all CEs in history. Her net popularity remains at negative 71 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 3.7 marks to 28.1 marks, approval rate 17%, disapproval rate 46%, giving a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 27.2 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 57%, thus a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.1 marks, approval rate 7%, disapproval rate 76%, giving a net popularity of negative 68 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung as well as the rating of Teresa Cheng have registered record lows since they took office.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Security John Lee.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 among 13 Directors have gone down and only that of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung has slightly gone up. Those of Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped by 20, 12, 11, 10, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Kevin Yeung, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Nicholas Yang, Joshua Law and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Frank Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
/
 
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
/
 
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (17%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (27%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (24%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (23%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (18%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (17%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (17%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (12%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[7]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (17%, 40%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (14%, 45%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (60%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (59%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (57%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (54%)

 
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]
CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (82%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (76%)

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (73%)

[7]    If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 September to 3 October, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 1 to 8 November, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/11/19 HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away.
6/11/19 Vice Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets with Carrie Lam.
6/11/19 Junius Ho is attacked with a knife.
2/11/19 Protests and conflicts break out on Hong Kong Island.
1/11/19 The press conference on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee is held.
29/10/19 Nomination of Joshua Wong for District Council election is ruled to be invalid.
28/10/19 Journalists protest against police violence targeting journalists during police press conference.
25/10/19 The High Court grants an interim injunction to restrain unlawful publishing of the personal data of police officers and their family members.
22/10/19 Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial.
20/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Kowloon district.
16/10/19 Carrie Lam delivers the 2019 Policy Address.
13/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
10/10/19 Matthew Cheung announces police has arrested more than 2,000 people since the anti-extradition bill movement began.
6/10/19 Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
5/10/19 Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
4/10/19 The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law.
1/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 19.5 marks, registering another new record low since she took office and across all CEs in history. Her net popularity remains at negative 71 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.1 marks and his net popularity is negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 27.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 40 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.1 marks and her net popularity is negative 68 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung as well as the rating of Teresa Cheng have registered record lows since they took office.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone down and only that of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung has slightly gone up. Those of Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped by 20, 12, 11, 10, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Kevin Yeung, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office.

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